Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4f4bec121763b8d6bfd344f8594ae537231bfb4380928662069262a69c833d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,881 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e1a…f893backed Yes | 11c | 3,650$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f3…5721backed Yes | 5c | 2,721$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…8e14backed Yes | 5c | 2,292$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…1199backed Yes | 7c | 2,043$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13dc…9ba8backed Yes | 10c | 1,981$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…aba6backed Yes | 9c | 1,928$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…730cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,659$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…4161backed Yes | 10c | 1,552$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…7dd0backed Yes | 11c | 1,467$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…0e43backed Yes | 5c | 1,361$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb108…1585backed Yes | 5c | 1,345$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…fe24backed Yes | 5c | 1,301$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…2e60backed Yes | 11c | 1,275$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…6b08backed Yes | 10c | 1,266$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…96c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,213$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…35e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,195$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa456…ca24backed Yes | 10c | 1,162$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0197…d7c2backed Yes | 5c | 1,159$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…74d7backed Yes | 11c | 1,132$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…0e18backed Yes | 5c | 1,098$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…e384backed Yes | 11c | 1,087$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…9c12backed Yes | 7c | 1,075$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…2261backed Yes | 11c | 1,066$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e3…f58fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,063$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49a9…6563backed Yes | 5c | 1,026$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…c92fbacked Yes | 6c | 998$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…0877backed Yes | 6c | 939$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…19e6backed Yes | 5c | 776$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8100…0885backed Yes | 6c | 739$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…0078backed Yes | 10c | 728.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe259…d8c1backed Yes | 5c | 660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…65bfbacked Yes | 14c | 620.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36e…a982backed Yes | 6c | 614$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c7…16cabacked Yes | 6c | 535$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab32…e7fbbacked Yes | 6c | 497$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cd…8722backed Yes | 10c | 484$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…883abacked Yes | 13c | 439.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 7c | 410.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…03e7backed Yes | 11c | 356$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…a924backed Yes | 10c | 303$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…c7c7backed Yes | 10c | 258$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…0c15backed Yes | 7c | 232$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +203%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 7c | 221.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 221.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 117.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…050abacked Yes | 16c | 112.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…fd54backed Yes | 17c | 108.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 16 – Mar 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.