NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Sabres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c94cb4d552fad715358bc646fbc5d7b7095782da67e73499658df298d64d24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Penguins, Sabres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Sabres | 55c | 3,000$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.96 | 245 | 46.1%113 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Penguins | 46c | 2,671$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.6 | 317 | 53.9%171 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Sabres | 54c | 1,206$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.95 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Penguins | 44c | 1,120$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.73 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Penguins | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sabres | 53c | 755.22$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.51 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Penguins | 44c | 597.04$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.73 | 510 | 44.5%227 W · 283 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Penguins | 48c | 474.6$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.81 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Sabres | 55c | 454.97$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.74 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +17.0wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…22f6backed Penguins | 44c | 430$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fae…8e64backed Sabres | 56c | 348.21$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Sabres | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Penguins | 44c | 297.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.04 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Penguins | 45c | 281.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7662…356bbacked Penguins | 44c | 259.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 206 | 49.5%102 W · 104 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Penguins | 46c | 219.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fec…70f9backed Penguins | 24c | 215.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…10d6backed Penguins | 29c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Penguins | 43c | 199.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 818 | 46%376 W · 442 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Sabres | 56c | 197.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.82 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Sabres | 76c | 190.6$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Sabres | 71c | 190.6$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 584 | 67.5%394 W · 190 L | +93.1wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Sabres | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…df01backed Penguins | 45c | 120.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Penguins | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442b…736cbacked Penguins | 44c | 105.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Penguins | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08d…d5d4backed Sabres | 55c | 99.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x406b…a13bbacked Penguins | 45c | 98.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…7a9dbacked Sabres | 56c | 97.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…b727backed Sabres | 56c | 97.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1507…b280backed Penguins | 45c | 95.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…32e8backed Sabres | 56c | 94.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +86.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd41a…ae93backed Sabres | 57c | 90.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…57c1backed Sabres | 56c | 82.71$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 51cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…fd50backed Penguins | 45c | 82.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0fdb…09e8backed Penguins | 44c | 82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd56…6b02backed Sabres | 56c | 81.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Sabres | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Sabres | 49c | 59.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…37e1backed Sabres | 57c | 57.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33ff…2079backed Penguins | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Penguins | 45c | 56.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…b078backed Sabres | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 141 | 56.7%80 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Sabres | 56c | 43.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…7d89backed Penguins | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Sabres | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Sabres | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 90 | 64.4%58 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…4b22backed Sabres | 56c | 38.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d5…a894backed Sabres | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…72cabacked Penguins | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdba…fbb8backed Sabres | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…be62backed Penguins | 45c | 23.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0166…af99backed Sabres | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…fdcabacked Sabres | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.