CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: paiN vs fnatic (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6caf3abda3033e31f958b259d3fc41ddee227d0798614ecf12c799935de09ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- fnaticof paiN, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked paiN | 53c | 6,659$3,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.41 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…1319backed fnatic | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,699.99 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked fnatic | 47c | 2,672$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.16 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked fnatic | 59c | 1,287$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.36 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed paiN | 39c | 1,154$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.41 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked fnatic | 66c | 1,047$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.23 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed fnatic | 70c | 710.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.93 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked fnatic | 47c | 676.6$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.6 | 244 | 40.6%99 W · 145 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed paiN | 54c | 552.33$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.01 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6bbdbacked paiN | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed paiN | 54c | 401.14$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.62 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed fnatic | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed paiN | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed fnatic | 46c | 217.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed paiN | 54c | 159.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked fnatic | 46c | 138.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed paiN | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked paiN | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked fnatic | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 264 | 38.6%102 W · 162 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked paiN | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed fnatic | 45c | 44.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed paiN | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed paiN | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -12.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.