Movies · resolved market
Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $40m-45m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d31b07e4cb8428faec149f2b8a7fc859833c80a9b4956f877f1d1da4bcca336
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd279…e09dbacked No | 14c | 1,533$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed No | 7c | 400.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.63 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 26c | 356.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.95 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 78c | 222$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.05 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed No | 43c | 221.57$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.51 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…8c34backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…63dbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $40m-45m opening weekend? this page
- Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $35m-40m opening weekend? No won
- Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross between $45m-50m opening weekend? Yes won
- Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' gross under $35m opening weekend? No won
- Will 'Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire' over $50m opening weekend? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.