Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d69053244e980bbe51f3439259e4ac914463119685cfc63a99b2ef6051f1d86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,437
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,437 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 38c | 30,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,599.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 14,783$9,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,172.65 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 61c | 9,553$5,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,831.02 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 32c | 3,125$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.97 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 2,221$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.13 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 49c | 1,886$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.85 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 33c | 1,212$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 68c | 604.65$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.16 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…5431backed Yes | 64c | 390.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 75c | 337$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 31c | 324.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 36c | 292$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.76 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 62c | 240.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 68c | 214.77$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.61 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…50bcbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 184$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58e…69e4backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…7f2abacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…b82cbacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 75.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7d…6aeabacked Yes | 32c | 61.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 31c | 33.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 68c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…3bcebacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.