Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe58b0231dcdca84e8f61fe77bd5f8555ceaa9f7b001ffd6ab2f4749da0b6e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 25c | 60,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 60c | 24,059$14,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,603.99 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 61c | 3,604$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.1 | 231 | 51.5%119 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed No | 60c | 3,500$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 39c | 3,386$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.59 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,310$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.62 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 60c | 1,067$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.96 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed No | 60c | 974.2$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.68 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 39c | 769.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 761$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 11c | 494.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…3682backed Yes | 23c | 434.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Yes | 41c | 366.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…716bbacked Yes | 41c | 243$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 60c | 149$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 40c | 98.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 40c | 97.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…658ebacked No | 61c | 69.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 34c | 44.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fa…1cf2backed No | 61c | 32.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 60c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…3bcebacked No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toulouse FC win on 2025-11-09?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-11-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.