CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6db601cc8a361236eec5f4259058787132c36ad78393cfe4ad9e41dcbf015b93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Outfit 49of Outfit 49, Team Aether
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $846 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Outfit 49 | 42c | 187.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.57 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Outfit 49 | 32c | 90.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked Team Aether | 78c | 63.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team Aether | 59c | 58.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Team Aether | 76c | 49.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 230 | 57%131 W · 99 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Aether | 59c | 40.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Aether | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 PlayoffsTeam Aether won
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether - Map 2 WinnerTeam Aether won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.