CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07b2b55e23241dd79737db424e626e30b98d0b8c5b14dde0a8d9b4cd471f49fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Aetherof Outfit 49, Team Aether
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,486 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2079…33d8backed Outfit 49 | 1c | 1,265$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Outfit 49 | 46c | 1,263$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.41 | 467 | 49.7%232 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Outfit 49 | 34c | 1,005$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.7 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9b4fbacked Outfit 49 | 45c | 861$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Team Aether | 54c | 825.85$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.89 | 391 | 45.8%179 W · 212 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Outfit 49 | 35c | 815.99$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.71 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Outfit 49 | 44c | 801.51$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.81 | 5,262 | 31.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L | -381.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Aether | 74c | 739.86$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.37 | 1,606 | 46.8%752 W · 854 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Outfit 49 | 38c | 568.42$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.64 | 6,466 | 42.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L | -78.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked Outfit 49 | 24c | 514.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 431 | 37.8%163 W · 268 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…5943backed Outfit 49 | 54c | 464.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…be26backed Outfit 49 | 60c | 410.48$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c5…99d8backed Team Aether | 68c | 400.4$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.54 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Outfit 49 | 30c | 325.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 3,888 | 36.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L | -197.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61aa…ff6fbacked Team Aether | 76c | 310.71$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Aether | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e59…1520backed Team Aether | 46c | 299.89$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…3b71backed Team Aether | 56c | 288.18$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…4386backed Team Aether | 56c | 269.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…a179backed Team Aether | 58c | 258.5$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…c3b4backed Team Aether | 58c | 236.12$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 339 | 50.7%172 W · 167 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Team Aether | 78c | 208$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Team Aether | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Outfit 49 | 44c | 189.3$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Team Aether | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc332…59a9backed Outfit 49 | 47c | 159.21$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 68cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Outfit 49 | 35c | 154.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 1,546 | 33.8%523 W · 1,023 L | -73.9wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…4f1dbacked Outfit 49 | 74c | 145.36$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd20f…2f35backed Team Aether | 55c | 144.17$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.83 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Outfit 49 | 9c | 142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 223 | 24.7%55 W · 168 L | -21.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Outfit 49 | 13c | 136$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 296 | 47.6%141 W · 155 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Outfit 49 | 36c | 127.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Team Aether | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 497 | 45.9%228 W · 269 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Team Aether | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…768abacked Team Aether | 65c | 106.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Outfit 49 | 42c | 105.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Outfit 49 | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 246 | 33.3%82 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Outfit 49 | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…6631backed Team Aether | 56c | 97.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8d…6fe9backed Team Aether | 55c | 93.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Team Aether | 38c | 93.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 1,318 | 51.7%682 W · 636 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Team Aether | 44c | 93.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Team Aether | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,314 | 44.3%582 W · 732 L | +47.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Outfit 49 | 40c | 85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 292 | 44.5%130 W · 162 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…f15cbacked Outfit 49 | 42c | 70.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Outfit 49 | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 389 | 42.4%165 W · 224 L | -15.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Outfit 49 | 54c | 69.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…b39ebacked Team Aether | 66c | 65.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Team Aether | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Outfit 49 | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Outfit 49 | 43c | 59.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 623 | 50.9%317 W · 306 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Outfit 49 | 21c | 58.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Team Aether | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Team Aether | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 956 | 49.7%475 W · 481 L | -18.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Outfit 49 | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Team Aether | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2b…fb77backed Outfit 49 | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Team Aether | 59c | 43.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Aether | 47c | 39.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 1,109 | 50.5%560 W · 549 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…f506backed Team Aether | 33c | 36.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Team Aether | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…ff2fbacked Team Aether | 62c | 34.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…aa18backed Outfit 49 | 48c | 34.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Team Aether | 79c | 33.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Team Aether | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 735 | 48.4%356 W · 379 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5747…7fdfbacked Team Aether | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…fc74backed Outfit 49 | 49c | 30.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 308 | 31.2%96 W · 212 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Outfit 49 | 51c | 30.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Team Aether | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,770 | 37.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L | -139.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Team Aether | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Team Aether | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Aether | 45c | 28.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36b…64f4backed Outfit 49 | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7e…d68fbacked Team Aether | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Team Aether | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup #2 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether - Map 1 WinnerOutfit 49 won
- Counter-Strike: Outfit 49 vs Team Aether - Map 2 WinnerTeam Aether won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.