Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8428819a6bc70b31a718db5cbe7c2b567f845257075a5c90d0886320bb33eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 55c | 356.68$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.61 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 34c | 239.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab0…6364backed Yes | 59c | 181.62$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 152.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.07 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 41c | 125.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 97.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 96.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 82.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 73.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 69.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 67.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 36c | 64.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked No | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 54.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 48c | 43.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 59c | 42.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf6…24f9backed Yes | 43c | 41.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 36c | 39.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 45c | 29.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 37c | 28.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 46c | 26.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 58c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed3…4240backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 63c | 23.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 59c | 17.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.