South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb2d0be70a232f14e8a94ca267bbe86e55154e3b84463398eb449ac6d50fc62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 517.88$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 58c | 399.91$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.95 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 42c | 370.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.89 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296f…eeb0backed Yes | 45c | 222.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 55c | 218.22$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 45c | 158.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa0…96b3backed No | 58c | 53.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…d9f0backed No | 57c | 53.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 42c | 28.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.