MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ec2e0c602dfe203585e037a22f1fd9d423a0c907998b3507f16c3a81ff7e97f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 1,886$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 713.12$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.07 | 991 | 49.9%495 W · 496 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 578.2$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.66 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 337$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 217.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 190.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 177$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Miami Marlins | 9c | 174$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Miami Marlins | 9c | 159$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 10c | 135.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Miami Marlins | 18c | 117.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 39.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.