Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa0e83cc3c3d1100582a748af295b6cd83437567e15ee672c5a32cafbb99220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 11c | 371.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 296.51$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 170.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 41c | 166.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 148.51$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 128.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 127.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 112.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…b4a2backed Yes | 32c | 107.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…d983backed Yes | 41c | 104.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 91.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 88.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 71c | 86.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 84.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 36c | 72.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc956…9168backed Yes | 42c | 70.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 38c | 63.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…b414backed Yes | 45c | 60.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 27c | 60.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes | 37c | 50.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…70c4backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 47.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049e…55b1backed Yes | 34c | 44.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked Yes | 42c | 42.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 44c | 39.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 35.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 62c | 31.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked No | 66c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 74c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…6a1dbacked No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4e…778fbacked Yes | 45c | 25.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…0365backed No | 73c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…8628backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.