Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x216fb8204ad75268696f9d333a5ccc8d9e433a5d9e89f8a0d6229a5b926de2f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,755
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 2c | 528.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 294.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 49c | 204.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 157.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 56c | 142.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 22c | 139.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed Yes | 50c | 132.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 129.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 10c | 128.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 35c | 105.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 85.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 24c | 85.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.21 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 80.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8c…0977backed Yes | 37c | 64.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 34c | 56.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…98a3backed No | 45c | 48.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4998…2f76backed No | 52c | 47.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 72c | 39.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…6561backed Yes | 37c | 38.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 47c | 37.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 66c | 36.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 34.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…ba9ebacked Yes | 51c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 54c | 33.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…0365backed No | 57c | 29.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 26.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…4cccbacked Yes | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 69c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on February 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on February 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.