Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel win on 2025-09-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703e2599364196b942c1f075f624001afaa0b76531f1c4b71fd03b5f48264e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed No | 36c | 2,500$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 1,374$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.49 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…b5ccbacked Yes | 65c | 900.04$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 64c | 625$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 35c | 600$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked No | 38c | 549.99$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 64c | 546.88$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.88 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 64c | 435.94$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.94 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 35c | 369.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 35c | 334.82$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eef…c865backed Yes | 63c | 319.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…9012backed Yes | 64c | 178.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +82%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…a2b4backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 37c | 126.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed No | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 36c | 122.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 62c | 97.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 36c | 65.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 64c | 63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…31a3backed Yes | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 64c | 31.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 116 | 60.3%70 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…293ebacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7f…d284backed Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…7f73backed Yes | 63c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…c28abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win on 2025-09-05?this page
- Will Moldova vs. Israel end in a draw?No won
- Will Moldova win on 2025-09-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.