Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 22-23°F on January 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70751134d56bcf4f339c8646c6076b4b6bd7640a0f5b4b3dd09a91546ba4b816
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 15c | 621.12$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 43c | 258.6$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.8 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x720e…17b0backed Yes | 50c | 252.1$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 19c | 163.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 148.78$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde33…1496backed Yes | 52c | 93.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -70%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd791…c3bbbacked Yes | 13c | 90.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…8cbcbacked No | 72c | 82.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…a612backed No | 80c | 72.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -9.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x004a…fb69backed Yes | 22c | 68.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 47c | 68.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 61.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 23c | 56.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…61afbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d2…addebacked Yes | 31c | 38.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 38.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed No | 70c | 37.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 29c | 35.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 45c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 31.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…8b8ebacked No | 64c | 18.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…650ebacked No | 79c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 22-23°F on January 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 19°F or below on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 30°F or higher on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 20-21°F on January 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 24-25°F on January 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 26-27°F on January 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.