Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x708a3ccd9bd920da09fb30fd175451e018856f30647b7da8de487fb79c6911b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd924…7523backed No | 67c | 1,706$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.62 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…04dbbacked Yes | 36c | 967.64$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.61 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 24c | 509$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.48 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 226$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f8…f8d5backed No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 545 | 29.5%161 W · 384 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Yes | 60c | 121.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 64c | 112$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…f9e3backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…9071backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Yes | 53c | 73.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 39c | 73.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…9d52backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…a693backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b88bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…08a1backed Yes | 59c | 42.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 36.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x923e…2ab6backed Yes | 53c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on November 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on November 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on November 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on November 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.