Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b979b81989fc8a706c45931d503119b4fab584f53a7a5a2de4734abf972344
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Musettiof Musetti, Perricard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Perricard | 5c | 7,281$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Musetti | 76c | 1,652$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.22 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Musetti | 62c | 1,589$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.05 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…60abbacked Musetti | 62c | 1,199$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.39 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Perricard | 23c | 1,140$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Musetti | 67c | 698.08$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.27 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Perricard | 33c | 650$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Perricard | 31c | 506.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Perricard | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Musetti | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Perricard | 33c | 60.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Musetti | 67c | 51.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Perricard | 39c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Musetti | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Perricard | 43c | 25.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…6ab0backed Musetti | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Musetti | 67c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.