Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x710ed905da2e9d48adeca77347ef7836a5e17b15cd292158fde360b68063d1f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…d061backed Yes | 35c | 3,903$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.38 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 49c | 1,947$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.97 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 57c | 743.42$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.19 | 310 | 34.8%108 W · 202 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…8c49backed No | 76c | 631.58$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 64c | 437.76$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.91 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 297.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 7c | 242.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.34 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 23c | 125$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 27c | 112.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…9d00backed Yes | 34c | 53.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 4?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on August 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.