Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f54b83b388c362979437e993ad8c3cce38df2bf93fd7945c7eda1e154d32a78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb784…d061backed Yes | 31c | 3,804$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.01 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 66c | 1,869$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.87 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 32c | 1,083$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.85 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 26c | 415.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 42c | 327.31$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed No | 67c | 163.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae7d…058fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…e432backed No | 75c | 93.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Yes | 41c | 46.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed No | 60c | 46.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa06…74c3backed No | 80c | 24.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…9d00backed No | 65c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 59c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $77 on August 4?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on August 4?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $79 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on August 4?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.