Golf · resolved market
U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau vs. Scottie Scheffler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71aa946e3e92f0a7a0aad9db562bf3d321ef75ac13a901d3c24bcd8e7eb906d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Scheffler of DeChambeau, Scheffler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb7…2983backed Scheffler | 68c | 409.7$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked DeChambeau | 31c | 191.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed DeChambeau | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked DeChambeau | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed DeChambeau | 32c | 85.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed DeChambeau | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Scheffler | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Scheffler | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.