Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e24261f921e42a27d8b8b5e330a61de101810ff3009f8608e928d3e37b0e7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 54c | 354.18$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.64 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 36c | 277.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.75 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 43c | 259.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 242.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed No | 42c | 181.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 168.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 89.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 88.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 60c | 76.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…f366backed Yes | 59c | 68.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb1…6be9backed No | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed No | 40c | 56.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 55.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 52.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 56c | 45.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…5630backed Yes | 64c | 42.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 59c | 38.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 44c | 38.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 53c | 38.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 57c | 37.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 43c | 36.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a2…5c31backed Yes | 58c | 32.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…690cbacked No | 41c | 32.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…579fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed Yes | 53c | 25.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 59c | 25.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 55c | 22.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 20.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…5308backed Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C or higher on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.