Movies · resolved market
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7247970ed39564f381addd46a266cc0508d654fc3db53cbaf267fdeba89a0cd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 7 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5097…354bbacked Yes | 73c | 5,740$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,190.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e56…0833backed No | 27c | 5,740$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 14cpaid | +706.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eb26backed Yes | 18c | 541.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de8…a8fabacked Yes | 5c | 299.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 73c | 119.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 26c | 96.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 74c | 95.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Fall" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Rip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.