Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
San Francisco Dons vs. Montana State Bobcats (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x729b92c8a09834cb072c2ec39e9ce1a00cf62e62d405375de34612880505f584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana State Bobcatsof San Francisco Dons, Montana State Bobcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,559 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…8276backed San Francisco Dons | 37c | 883.24$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.37 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Montana State Bobcats | 62c | 705.02$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana State Bobcats | 76c | 608.83$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.43 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed San Francisco Dons | 26c | 395.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Dons | 21c | 344.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked San Francisco Dons | 46c | 268$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Montana State Bobcats | 62c | 171.31$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Montana State Bobcats | 60c | 166.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked Montana State Bobcats | 80c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed San Francisco Dons | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Montana State Bobcats | 72c | 56.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Montana State Bobcats | 78c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Montana State Bobcats | 78c | 23.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 334 | 45.5%152 W · 182 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.