Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72bafd4a4546ad4cf402d98e3fb93e5781dd84154dca82547ea2a7ea704efed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 3,730$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752.41 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,250$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 65c | 885.16$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.94 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 34c | 778.42$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.21 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 62c | 608.04$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.02 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 69c | 606$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 2c | 509.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 670 | 42.2%283 W · 387 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 53c | 331.36$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.76 | 533 | 44.8%239 W · 294 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 37c | 255$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 35c | 199.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 66c | 166.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 495 | 44.2%219 W · 276 L | -20.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 37c | 157.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed No | 33c | 151.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 293 | 43.7%128 W · 165 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…b4f1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 66c | 86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…0fbabacked Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 73c | 69.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…6deebacked Yes | 67c | 67.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 47c | 60.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 423 | 24.3%103 W · 320 L | -36.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed No | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 48.6%105 W · 111 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 62c | 52.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0052…4d9ebacked Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +9.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Yes | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 721 | 42.7%308 W · 413 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 44c | 24.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…2988backed Yes | 66c | 21.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-01-20?this page
- Will Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sheffield Wednesday FC win on 2026-01-20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.