Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72e9683a18ef91226a694bd319cc7a1ddfdfef69c771219a2e116945389ec0b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,198$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 434.01$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 237.45$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 219.01$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 210.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 17c | 202.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 36c | 200$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 67c | 190$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.73 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 188.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 67c | 149$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 95.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 91.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 84.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 47c | 77.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 38c | 65.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 61.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 35c | 55.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 56c | 44.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 47c | 39.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 39.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 30.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 30.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 48c | 27.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 25.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 46c | 24.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 48c | 23.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 61c | 19.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 64c | 15.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.