College Football · resolved market
Spread: North Carolina (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73ed0b0a5a0cdaf99dcfb687b0440366f0984b35da8b5eaf3a4f3ae3961612d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stanfordof North Carolina, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Stanford | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed North Carolina | 49c | 14,964$7,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,332.36 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Stanford | 48c | 1,750$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed North Carolina | 52c | 1,750$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed North Carolina | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Stanford | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed Stanford | 49c | 1,129$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.59 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked North Carolina | 54c | 698$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.92 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed North Carolina | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Stanford | 47c | 529.51$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.3 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked North Carolina | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Stanford | 49c | 132.47$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Stanford | 50c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed North Carolina | 50c | 29.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed North Carolina | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed North Carolina | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa48…1369backed North Carolina | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: North Carolina (-7.5)this page
- O/U 41.5Under won
- Stanford vs. North CarolinaNorth Carolina won
- Stanford vs. North Carolina: O/U 42.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.