Premier League · resolved market
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7403c0e8323d0c4acaf7c4685c85adec3e99cca13c4a13ec62ca224fde2436ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 67c | 1,555$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.59 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738d…4df6backed Yes | 32c | 1,080$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 68c | 760.72$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.03 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked No | 70c | 464.28$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 65c | 217.62$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.77 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6451…025fbacked Yes | 33c | 153.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a06…d20ebacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -9.4wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 156 | 36.5%57 W · 99 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 427 | 55%235 W · 192 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6677backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce36…48cabacked Yes | 30c | 36.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafe7…af25backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 67c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…c1f4backed No | 70c | 23.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Leicester win on 2024-11-02?this page
- Will Ipswich vs. Leicester end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.