Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Logrono Women: Paula Cembranos vs Zi Ying Ruan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742af847215547c40212e0a9d37e94417e1c3a8f085a516d319022cacc87b28a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paula Cembranosof Paula Cembranos, Zi Ying Ruan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Zi Ying Ruan | 43c | 1,134$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.89 | 11,779 | 43.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L | +20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Paula Cembranos | 57c | 556.09$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.66 | 3,885 | 55%2,137 W · 1,748 L | +111.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Paula Cembranos | 56c | 244.8$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.22 | 795 | 38.4%305 W · 490 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Paula Cembranos | 51c | 138.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.74 | 1,058 | 40.9%433 W · 625 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Paula Cembranos | 33c | 88.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.46 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | +27.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Paula Cembranos | 65c | 76.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 8,057 | 50.8%4,089 W · 3,968 L | +90.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Zi Ying Ruan | 36c | 70.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 3,749 | 42.5%1,594 W · 2,155 L | -44.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…3f3fbacked Paula Cembranos | 64c | 63.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | +43.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Zi Ying Ruan | 78c | 59.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 239 | 72.8%174 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Paula Cembranos | 59c | 56.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Paula Cembranos | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Paula Cembranos | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Paula Cembranos | 49c | 46.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 1,073 | 57.6%618 W · 455 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3e…b9c5backed Paula Cembranos | 55c | 43.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 399 | 58.4%233 W · 166 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Paula Cembranos | 54c | 43.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 427 | 59%252 W · 175 L | +26.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Zi Ying Ruan | 33c | 30.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,316 | 39%513 W · 803 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Paula Cembranos | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Paula Cembranos | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 294 | 68.7%202 W · 92 L | +14.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.