Fifa International · resolved market
Will Australia win on 2025-09-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x743960d190f8324cbf2a183b5360af1abc02af6d0b07d9046f42b989bc2bca8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 33c | 2,750$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.51 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6695…6f1abacked Yes | 67c | 2,617$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.72 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 60c | 2,038$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.34 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 36c | 1,500$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.99 | 470 | 32.8%154 W · 316 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 64c | 1,124$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Yes | 63c | 982.23$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.23 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 35c | 675.28$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.75 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 37c | 620$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.4 | 96 | 18.8%18 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 63c | 499.99$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 36c | 467.56$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.01 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 66c | 457.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.58 | 131 | 59.5%78 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed No | 67c | 299.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…3748backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 68c | 147.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a64…cd34backed Yes | 64c | 84.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 35c | 51.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 215 | 42.8%92 W · 123 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 263 | 54.8%144 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 65c | 44.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 63c | 44.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 66c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a75…0230backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa004…290ebacked Yes | 65c | 27.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked No | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…0b9ebacked Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 77c | 15.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Australia win on 2025-09-05?this page
- Will Australia vs. New Zealand end in a draw?No won
- Will New Zealand win on 2025-09-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.