Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74479a00b066ba5205ce518d1443871bb653c34f345c1bf1cf189f1ff0d44a71
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Filsof Fils, Tsitsipas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,958 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Fils | 50c | 1,792$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.99 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tsitsipas | 49c | 1,001$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.49 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Fils | 41c | 664.63$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.91 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Tsitsipas | 59c | 634$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.06 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tsitsipas | 55c | 631.65$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.92 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Fils | 39c | 364.79$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.91 | 427 | 43.8%187 W · 240 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 274.91$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998e…5318backed Fils | 39c | 261.54$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Tsitsipas | 61c | 250.43$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.11 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Fils | 40c | 199$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.4 | 380 | 48.4%184 W · 196 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Tsitsipas | 51c | 183.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Fils | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 904 | 35.7%323 W · 581 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tsitsipas | 61c | 141$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Fils | 39c | 135.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Fils | 39c | 115.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…6a21backed Tsitsipas | 50c | 59.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Fils | 50c | 43.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Fils | 40c | 41.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…853bbacked Fils | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…60cebacked Fils | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Fils | 29c | 36.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 31.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tsitsipas | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Tsitsipas | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 350 | 40.9%143 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…1ee9backed Tsitsipas | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)this page
- Fils vs. Tsitsipas: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Miami Open: Arthur Fils vs Stefanos TsitsipasArthur Fils won
- Set 1 Winner: Fils vs TsitsipasFils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.