South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754ba636e13755d23fa711707e857aa4fdcd13d5eed0afbea363cb081dc1659b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,757 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 36c | 15,599$5,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,562.7 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 66c | 6,818$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.12 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 5,347$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,783.07 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 4,410$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.95 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 3,698$2,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.27 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…4e1abacked No | 67c | 3,193$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.67 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 35c | 2,400$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.91 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,569$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.43 | 200 | 22.5%45 W · 155 L | -13.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 1,385$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.5 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 1,365$905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.12 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,085$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.38 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 948.87$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.62 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 67c | 579.33$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.58 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 577.36$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.84 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 67c | 519.94$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.58 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 18c | 372.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 23c | 299.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1,651 | 50.6%836 W · 815 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 66c | 250$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 67c | 249.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 203$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.02 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 67c | 198.59$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 66c | 180$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 67c | 156.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 117 | 63.2%74 W · 43 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Yes | 37c | 156$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 63c | 146.03$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…f99dbacked Yes | 33c | 143$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…f82dbacked Yes | 33c | 119$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…b491backed Yes | 33c | 114$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…c32dbacked Yes | 33c | 103.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…79dbbacked No | 50c | 97.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…08bbbacked Yes | 37c | 81.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 32c | 80.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 15c | 79.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 78c | 77.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…ccb6backed No | 69c | 62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 34c | 60.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 59.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c4f1backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 175 | 60.6%106 W · 69 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 67c | 51.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed No | 66c | 42.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616e…2076backed No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0c…21d8backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…e66abacked No | 69c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b4…85f7backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed No | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3786…712fbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 66c | 29.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Yes | 35c | 29.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa7…a0ccbacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05cb…3d49backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 62c | 27.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ec…0fb3backed No | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 60c | 24.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da5…59aebacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc734…aaa5backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…ed89backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…d9afbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d2…810cbacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…cf14backed No | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c95…9078backed No | 67c | 18.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca18…3e45backed No | 67c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Estudiantes vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Estudiantes win on 2026-03-12?No won
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-03-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.