TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: WB (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Top Esportsof Weibo Gaming, Top Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,800

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,304 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22d0…6293backed Top Esports53c5,877$3,130 inWon+$2,746.4111150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…f688backed Top Esports54c5,000$2,700 inWon+$2,299.9714753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Weibo Gaming46c2,726$1,254 inLost-$1,253.9441644.2%184 W · 232 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Weibo Gaming50c2,000$999 inLost-$999.0276953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Top Esports50c1,973$985 inWon+$988.681,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a8…df59backed Weibo Gaming46c1,930$888 inLost-$887.636034.4%124 W · 236 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-8.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Weibo Gaming46c1,122$516 inLost-$516.124055%22 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+26.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d9f…787abacked Weibo Gaming46c1,088$500 inLost-$50061045.2%276 W · 334 L+35.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bfc…ce53backed Weibo Gaming47c1,000$470 inLost-$47014158.2%82 W · 59 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Weibo Gaming47c748$352 inLost-$351.5623439.7%93 W · 141 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Weibo Gaming47c603.6$283 inLost-$283.0567549%331 W · 344 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Top Esports53c502.46$267 inWon+$235.631,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5316…1d07backed Weibo Gaming47c500$235 inLost-$23529240.1%117 W · 175 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4a3…3599backed Weibo Gaming46c413$190 inLost-$189.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Weibo Gaming46c394$181 inLost-$181.2456650%283 W · 283 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Weibo Gaming51c380.18$195 inLost-$194.8916851.2%86 W · 82 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Top Esports54c300$162 inWon+$13885746.3%397 W · 460 L+17.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Weibo Gaming47c300$141 inLost-$14119451%99 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked Weibo Gaming47c296.87$140 inLost-$139.532462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4339…beeebacked Top Esports54c278.7$150 inWon+$128.217357.8%100 W · 73 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Weibo Gaming48c267$128 inLost-$128.1612937.2%48 W · 81 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Weibo Gaming45c230.18$103 inLost-$102.591,15649.1%568 W · 588 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Weibo Gaming49c228.8$112 inLost-$112.0992450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeddf…a953backed Weibo Gaming47c212.77$100 inLost-$10039541.3%163 W · 232 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Top Esports54c185.19$100 inWon+$85.196448.4%31 W · 33 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Weibo Gaming46c100$46 inLost-$4627248.9%133 W · 139 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e72…c55fbacked Weibo Gaming47c91.49$43 inLost-$433046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c1…928cbacked Top Esports54c74.07$40 inWon+$34.0715862.7%99 W · 59 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x725f…cea7backed Top Esports51c54.64$28 inWon+$26.773253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Top Esports51c50$25 inWon+$24.679741.2%40 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb4…8830backed Top Esports54c37.04$20 inWon+$17.0412437.9%47 W · 77 L+0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb76…4c2cbacked Weibo Gaming48c31.25$15 inLost-$155366%35 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Top Esports49c25$12 inWon+$12.7516934.3%58 W · 111 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Top Esports55c24.8$14 inWon+$11.1615945.3%72 W · 87 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Top Esports54c22.22$12 inWon+$10.2253955.1%297 W · 242 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.