Fifa International · resolved market
Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75be56861e6f5dc76a9caf8c1662b08d523142155340d32f19d0b33e03a96025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 21c | 1,250$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.55 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…7170backed Under | 50c | 652.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.73 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 50c | 426.58$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.39 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4820…c613backed Over | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 7c | 317.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 7c | 271.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 159 | 45.3%72 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 7c | 186.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 11c | 180.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over | 51c | 141.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab7…0409backed Over | 16c | 74.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 58.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b5…2c2cbacked Over | 50c | 48.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 71c | 39.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 51c | 31.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 51c | 28.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 51c | 27.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 54c | 27.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 127 | 44.1%56 W · 71 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 55c | 25.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 51c | 24.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 46c | 22.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5this page
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5)North Macedonia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.