Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc47e6190d036c584c9ea6adea968cf7d12d8f49e4f2b1a13f31eecef37abf11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- North Macedoniaof Republic of Ireland, North Macedonia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,953
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,953 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed North Macedonia | 78c | 1,519$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.61 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Republic of Ireland | 21c | 1,248$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.42 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Republic of Ireland | 27c | 1,075$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked North Macedonia | 73c | 714.84$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.01 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Republic of Ireland | 19c | 101.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed North Macedonia | 78c | 44.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked North Macedonia | 79c | 37.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed North Macedonia | 77c | 36.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked North Macedonia | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed North Macedonia | 79c | 29.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked North Macedonia | 77c | 25.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed North Macedonia | 79c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 740 | 34.1%252 W · 488 L | -36.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked North Macedonia | 62c | 16.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Republic of Ireland (-1.5)this page
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 1.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Republic of Ireland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.