Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d6381550173d4f5eaa66cde565dddd1d049e0aec144923ccce167dea6c788d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed Yes | 9c | 1,968$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.49 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 503.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 31c | 218.61$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 165.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 39c | 142.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 138.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 18c | 111.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 69c | 105.72$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked Yes | 14c | 95.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b3…6d19backed Yes | 29c | 92.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 85.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 85.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 80.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 78.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 79c | 73.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 71.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 71.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 70.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 39c | 67.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 63.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ee…9836backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 59.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 20c | 58.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…22e5backed Yes | 35c | 52.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 59c | 49.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 69c | 48.45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 29c | 44.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 42c | 43.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 41.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 74c | 39.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 37.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 58c | 36.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 70c | 32.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 73c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…1ecdbacked No | 69c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C or higher on April 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.