South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x761964debcf05d8b13ed542ce008ceb424e5276c6d8f4a577df5cde9ed52a3e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.69 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 62c | 802.5$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.5 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 54c | 738.01$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 47c | 541.83$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.22 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 534.3$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 9c | 430.11$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.59 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 68c | 367.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 60c | 330.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 52c | 267.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.05 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 44c | 248.2$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a8…2282backed Over | 61c | 243.15$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 38c | 220.57$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.82 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 71c | 191.57$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.25 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 133.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 11c | 131.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 44c | 126.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…4fcdbacked Over | 60c | 102.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 66c | 52.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 61c | 49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 32c | 48.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Santos FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Santos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.