Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Wolves end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764f95b2b7f718daee3cf8663cd59859597503d4e281b78c2248790ddbc09f90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,302
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 287 | 36.2%104 W · 183 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 2,087$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.02 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 18c | 572.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…e40cbacked Yes | 20c | 510.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 258 | 36%93 W · 165 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 19c | 335.8$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 80c | 306.39$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 406 | 40.9%166 W · 240 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 288.76$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 8c | 169.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 78c | 100.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 227 | 64.8%147 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 79c | 43.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Wolves end in a draw?this page
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-13?Yes won
- Will Wolves win on 2025-09-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.