South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76f510c57b0711ddafcf7f8077b57ddc9e171d73a744e6de0be44e44cf2ec4b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 50c | 15,985$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,984.65 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 8,315$4,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,120.48 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 49c | 5,675$2,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,867.38 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.99 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Under | 48c | 2,905$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.64 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 51c | 2,900$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.31 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 53c | 2,612$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.32 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,518$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.35 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 52c | 1,682$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.64 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 49c | 931.24$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.92 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 29c | 860.08$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 30c | 802.5$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.75 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 31c | 802.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.78 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 48c | 800$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…7715backed Over | 53c | 739.62$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Over | 53c | 566.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 406.94$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.65 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 38c | 328.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 37c | 133.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Over | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 46c | 96.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 51c | 91.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 52c | 74.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 45.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 51c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Over | 29c | 36.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 68c | 35.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…195fbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Over | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 69c | 16.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 78c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Vélez Sarsfield vs. CD Riestra: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-1.5)CD Riestra won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-1.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
- Spread: CD Riestra (-2.5)CA Vélez Sarsfield won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.