Tennis · resolved market
ITF M15 Astana Men: Ivan Gretskiy vs Yu Tanaka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x771eb15d28f959c78acc99299098f50ffce16d4d14f584788e85d7e67cc2d2e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivan Gretskiyof Ivan Gretskiy, Yu Tanaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Ivan Gretskiy | 47c | 25,166$11,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,321.67 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yu Tanaka | 53c | 24,014$12,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,628.92 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yu Tanaka | 52c | 1,674$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.98 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Ivan Gretskiy | 43c | 500.33$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.67 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Yu Tanaka | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 624 | 57.7%360 W · 264 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ivan Gretskiy | 61c | 151.09$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.18 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53c…406bbacked Yu Tanaka | 56c | 117.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yu Tanaka | 20c | 97.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 1,708 | 44.8%766 W · 942 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Ivan Gretskiy | 61c | 92.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ivan Gretskiy | 67c | 81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yu Tanaka | 58c | 66.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d9…b1b1backed Ivan Gretskiy | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 507 | 36.1%183 W · 324 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…b22cbacked Ivan Gretskiy | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Yu Tanaka | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb0…15a6backed Yu Tanaka | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -21.0wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 25-0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ivan Gretskiy | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5f…f4e9backed Yu Tanaka | 52c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Ivan Gretskiy | 62c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Ivan Gretskiy | 61c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ivan Gretskiy | 64c | 18.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.