Mls · resolved market
Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77250dcbe69150d42dd6d5331270eabcabf1e5f97024633c5826689273f59fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sporting Kansas Cityof Columbus Crew, Sporting Kansas City
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x916f…53babacked Columbus Crew | 35c | 40,000$14,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,999.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 35,470$23,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,414.7 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 1,412$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.23 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Columbus Crew | 35c | 746.66$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 523.07$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 152.92$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Columbus Crew | 34c | 81.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Columbus Crew | 33c | 78.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Sporting Kansas City | 67c | 66.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…2784backed Columbus Crew | 36c | 52.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Sporting Kansas City | 66c | 35.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Sporting Kansas City | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…a557backed Sporting Kansas City | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Sporting Kansas City | 66c | 29.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Sporting Kansas City | 69c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)this page
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5Over won
- Sporting Kansas City vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.