Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x773f173dca8dced8494debba99efd7d367dd6d60590dd47a7bfd6cbba5b734f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Spirit, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba4a…9fa6backed Team Spirit | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 4,661$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,942.45 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf394…cdb1backed Team Spirit | 43c | 2,292$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.15 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 1,555$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.1 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 1,123$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.31 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 879.38$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.31 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Spirit | 35c | 658.4$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.44 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5664backed Team Spirit | 37c | 599.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…be7cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 440.23$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.38 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 276.36$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.08 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Team Spirit | 40c | 262.7$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 235 | 29.4%69 W · 166 L | -21.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Team Spirit | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Team Spirit | 41c | 165$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…41f2backed Team Spirit | 41c | 122.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…17c9backed Team Spirit | 46c | 104.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf836…e7b5backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 99.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 191 | 56%107 W · 84 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Spirit | 41c | 83.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 83.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed4…f891backed Team Spirit | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 58.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 44.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Xtreme Gaming | 45c | 33.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham PlayoffsXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.