Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77542667c879b6a2d8571243decb29da6f209e7622422593fad59711cdba321b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked No | 67c | 4,684$3,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,150 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 33c | 4,226$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,821.91 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 50c | 2,277$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.36 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 69c | 2,186$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.14 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 72c | 231.94$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 60c | 173.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…1425backed Yes | 30c | 164.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Yes | 63c | 158.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 39c | 150.77$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3623…b50dbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 31c | 100.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…920cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 27c | 64.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked Yes | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 65c | 47.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc90e…c7b6backed Yes | 43c | 46.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 70c | 24.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.