Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d7a654f84d6bc8dd6b51d12a46f9e344894387139fe81bc6bfd9cab9e6812e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 46c | 5,558$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.52 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Yes | 54c | 5,538$3,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,015 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 909$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 68c | 474$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.36 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 26c | 449.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.96 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 48c | 333$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.12 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…1bc2backed Yes | 37c | 271$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Yes | 36c | 149.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 138.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 31c | 120$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +815.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…1093backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 63c | 103.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 63c | 84.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa83…537bbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…dbc5backed Yes | 37c | 71.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…f28bbacked No | 64c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 67.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 61c | 60.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 67c | 59.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 35c | 55.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb91…f766backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…41c1backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 37c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…ed14backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339f…79f0backed Yes | 35c | 32.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…307fbacked Yes | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Union Berlin vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.