Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Iryna Shymanovich vs Arina Rodionova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77577125eec85d96e8414a6a0cad1968e91a9ce95e63575a06f8a582eac89e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shymanovichof Shymanovich, Rodionova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rodionova | 50c | 1,544$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.64 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rodionova | 3c | 878$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Shymanovich | 65c | 844.17$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.82 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Shymanovich | 51c | 600$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 440 | 38.4%169 W · 271 L | -27.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Rodionova | 34c | 346.6$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Rodionova | 60c | 308.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.51 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Rodionova | 42c | 239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Rodionova | 42c | 156$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Shymanovich | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…5f1ebacked Shymanovich | 27c | 109.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 280 | 39.3%110 W · 170 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Shymanovich | 68c | 109.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Rodionova | 67c | 107.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rodionova | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Shymanovich | 62c | 73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Rodionova | 15c | 72.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Rodionova | 41c | 66.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…1d2cbacked Shymanovich | 65c | 61.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 214 | 55.1%118 W · 96 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Shymanovich | 67c | 24.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Shymanovich | 54c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Iryna Shymanovich vs Arina Rodionovathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Shymanovich vs RodionovaShymanovich won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.