CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Venom (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77640977113cb78fb2428ab7b1e818df5f9d973339f8135b13b4e7757c3f06ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Aurora Gamingof Aurora Gaming, Venom
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed Venom | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…5a28backed Venom | 10c | 2,723$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.17 | 93 | 29%27 W · 66 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Venom | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Venom | 15c | 1,160$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora Gaming | 58c | 1,118$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.7 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…b283backed Aurora Gaming | 77c | 950$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.5 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Venom | 36c | 923.31$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.47 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…50c9backed Venom | 13c | 761.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Venom | 50c | 709.15$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.94 | 353 | 41.6%147 W · 206 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Venom | 10c | 496.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…d761backed Aurora Gaming | 62c | 480$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Venom | 8c | 313.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Venom | 44c | 280$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.7 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Venom | 9c | 279.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Venom | 27c | 248.34$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Venom | 11c | 211.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Venom | 23c | 139.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Venom | 11c | 133.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed Venom | 15c | 122.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 222 | 42.8%95 W · 127 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Venom | 15c | 119.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 840 | 37.9%318 W · 522 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Venom | 13c | 101.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 113 | 58.4%66 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Aurora Gaming | 51c | 90$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde5a…2875backed Venom | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215d…ba6dbacked Venom | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora Gaming | 70c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.