Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776ede5310883fec61211ccc63a9205e8d736f08ce29ff44f2ac55386f8d5e0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 241.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 154.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 31c | 140.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 133.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 74c | 105$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 70c | 91.31$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 34c | 61.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 56.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 56.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd469…3281backed No | 67c | 51.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 50.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…fc47backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 49.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 49.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 26c | 47.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 45.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 43.18$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 44c | 34.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 60c | 33.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 60c | 29.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 28.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 20.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed No | 60c | 18.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 77°F or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.