Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7782b58442470cdf6a130381adff3d50e856f18df636cde54f82bca9ddfd7bae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 78c | 545.42$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.49 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 4c | 399.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 394.61$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 366.91$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.15 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 324.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 320.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 38c | 259.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 8c | 233.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 206.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 53c | 198.69$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 159.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 64c | 157.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 155.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 34c | 143.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dc…338abacked No | 60c | 114.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a2…5febbacked Yes | 40c | 106.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 79c | 91.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 31c | 84.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 13c | 81.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 63.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 62.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 61.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…20f2backed Yes | 19c | 60.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 55c | 52.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed No | 65c | 50.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 45c | 42.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 45c | 41.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…cd52backed No | 80c | 39.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 29c | 38.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 68c | 38.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed No | 78c | 29.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…6770backed No | 54c | 25.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…ac3ebacked No | 73c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 62c | 22.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a1…a85ebacked No | 72c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 70c | 16.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C or higher on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 5°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.