Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Spirit Academy (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dc6e5a911338b9a7a2dbc41bcdecd7b843dd9c739a65849d7128eaa76def25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Rune Eaters, Spirit Academy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Spirit Academy | 27c | 1,200$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.04 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 1,005$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.2 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Rune Eaters | 75c | 700$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d97…f2bebacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 543.57$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Spirit Academy | 27c | 359.52$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d3…9f1bbacked Rune Eaters | 75c | 339.5$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…d16abacked Rune Eaters | 73c | 338.36$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Rune Eaters | 73c | 299.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Rune Eaters | 75c | 284.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Rune Eaters | 73c | 236.79$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Spirit Academy | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Rune Eaters | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…affbbacked Spirit Academy | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 255 | 47.8%122 W · 133 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f6…f506backed Rune Eaters | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…7693backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 85.14$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…ce7fbacked Spirit Academy | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Spirit Academy | 20c | 66.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Spirit Academy | 25c | 51.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Rune Eaters | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x857a…bcbbbacked Rune Eaters | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Rune Eaters | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…b4d2backed Rune Eaters | 70c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.