CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77dfe189563ed55f64c5550d72894fad93690d242d1bd0fc0b4d861a1d0d796c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof Alter Ego, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Alter Ego | 45c | 1,093$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.09 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 760.54$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.65 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 40c | 236.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.44 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Alter Ego | 60c | 217.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.23 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.12 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 199.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Alter Ego | 47c | 137.61$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 49c | 114.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Alter Ego | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 370 | 50.5%187 W · 183 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbea…5b1abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 55c | 75.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Alter Ego | 46c | 70.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 54c | 55.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…f591backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 48c | 46.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Alter Ego | 50c | 42.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Alter Ego | 50c | 37.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 50c | 37.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 285 | 49.5%141 W · 144 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Alter Ego | 45c | 31.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group BTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
- Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
- Map Handicap: TdU (-1.5) vs Alter Ego (+1.5)THUNDER dOWNUNDER won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.