Asian League · resolved market
Kashima Antlers vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78302ee2787e67146f96cb46d5e709a1e3548dc96e921f41f2cfeecb0b2cbb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,246 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 73c | 549.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 28c | 249.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 28c | 190$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 188.91$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 225 | 55.1%124 W · 101 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 184$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 71c | 100.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 72c | 59.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 29c | 59.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Over | 30c | 58.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 78c | 57.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 43.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 72c | 27.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashima Antlers vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 3.5this page
- Kashima Antlers vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 2.5Over won
- Kashima Antlers vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5)JEF United Ichihara Chiba won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.